Exploring every scenario: How India could still face elimination from the T20 World Cup 2024 Super 8

In a surprising turn of events, Afghanistan’s victory against former champions Australia has significantly altered the dynamics of Group 1 in the T20 World Cup, impacting the semi-final prospects. Following India’s triumph over Bangladesh, Australia needed a win against Afghanistan to secure four points and ensure a semi-final spot alongside India. 

If Australia had won, both teams would have progressed before their upcoming Monday match. However, Afghanistan's determined performance, reminiscent of their strong showing against Australia in last year’s ODI World Cup, has left all four teams with a chance to qualify for the next round as they head into the final matches.

Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios for Group 1

India (4 points, 2 games; NRR +2.4)

• Win against Australia: If India wins in the IND vs. AUS match, India qualifies for the semi-finals, making the Afghanistan vs. Bangladesh match irrelevant for them.
• Lose to Australia: India’s qualification hinges on the margin of their loss and the results of other matches.Australia needs to beat India by 41 runs to surpass India on Net Run Rate (NRR). Afghanistan needs to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs to surpass India.
• Washout: India will progress to the semi-finals, as no other team can reach five points.

Australia (2 points, 2 games; NRR +0.22)

AP

• Win against India: Australia needs to win and hope Bangladesh beats Afghanistan to ensure qualification.If both Australia and Afghanistan win, NRR will decide the semi-finalists.
• Lose narrowly to India: Australia remains in contention.They need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan by a margin that keeps both teams’ NRRs below Australia’s.
• Washout: Australia needs Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan or for the Afghanistan vs. Bangladesh match to be abandoned for a chance to qualify

Afghanistan (2 points, 2 games; NRR -0.65)

AP

• Lose to Bangladesh: Afghanistan needs:India to beat Australia, resulting in three teams tied at two points each, with NRR deciding the semi-finalist. Australia’s current NRR is better than Afghanistan and Bangladesh.If Afghanistan loses by one run, Australia must lose by 31 runs for Afghanistan’s NRR to be higher.
• Win against Bangladesh: If Australia beats India by one run, Afghanistan needs a 36-run margin to surpass Australia’s NRR.If Australia wins while chasing off the final ball, Afghanistan must win their match in 15.4 overs or fewer (assuming the first innings score is 160).
• Washout: Afghanistan needs India to beat Australia to remain in contention.

Bangladesh (0 points, 2 matches; NRR -2.48)

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